Extreme weather events in Thunder Bay, Ontario, Canada

• What extreme weather events impact where you live?

Although I didn't live in Thunder Bay at the time, in 2012, 120 mm of rain fell over 2 days in May (including 71 mm in less than 6 hours). This caused road wash outs, power outages, severe damage to hundreds of homes and businesses, issues at the water treatment plant and erosion to the city's landfill site.

Climate change is anticipated to bring an increase in average temperatures, shorter winters, rapid spring snow melts (increasing the risk of flooding) and more severe weather events (including freezing rain storms and tornadoes) to Thunder Bay in the future.

• Have you noticed any change in weather patterns with climate change?

I have noticed this especially in the middle of winter (December - February) where we often will have days of rain (rather than snow) which never occurred while I as growing up.

• Can we attribute extreme weather events to ‘climate change’?
• Scientists at the University of Minnesota (whose state also shares having one of the Great Lakes, Lake Superior on their shores), report that the changes to Lake Superior (increased surface temperature in summer, decrease ice cover, increased wind speeds) will lead to more frequent and intense storms. (http://www.seagrant.umn.edu/climate/superior)

carbon dioxide and 400 parts per million

• What could explain the changes in carbon dioxide concentration over millennial time scales?

We are now at 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere.  This is staggering given that for 400 000  it seemed that carbon dioxide was just following a fairly up and down pattern between 180 ppm and 300 ppm.

The reasons for the fluctuation are still a little over my head.  First you have the ways in which the earth has been circling the sun (eliptical or circular), tilting towards or away from the sun and "wobbling" on its access which from reading some of the comments from the other participants of the course, affected solar radiation coming in, warming the planet and then whether carbon dioxide could be released from the oceans).  Then there is volcanic activity also releasing huge amounts into the atmosphere at different times throughout history (which then may have acted like a cooling agent preventing solar radiation from getting in and changing the course of carbon dioxide being stored rather than released from the oceans.

• What could explain the changes in carbon dioxide concentration over recent time scales?

Understanding the science behind the fluctuations over the last 400 000 years is important as it seems it would allow scientists to look at all the complex factors and determine the main causes of the earth's rising temperature.  And since that cause is clearly increased green house gas concentrations with carbon dioxide increasing from 280 ppm to 412 ppm in the last 150 years (according to NASA's global climate change site), we, as humans have to take responsibility in recognizing the burning of oil and gas as the main cause and commit to ways stop our reliance on it.

Climate Science - End of Week 1

Wow this course is hard.  My 42 year old brain is not only trying to read and understand the information but then to explain the information (even if it is just to my blog).  This is something I haven't had to do a in over 15 years (when I finished my last degree).  I can usually correctly answer the multiple choice questions but the following more open ended questions, are challenging.  Which probably means I have a ways to go to be able to explain it to someone else in a way that makes sense to them. 

What are the key scientific principles that explain climate change including the greenhouse (blanket) effect?

- the earth's atmosphere has important  "Greenhouse gases" that act like a blanket around the earth allowing sunlight (short wave radiation) in.  This radiation can pass through the gasses and then be absorbed by the the earth's surface and the living things on it but it can also be reflected back towards space.   The Green house gases can now absorb/trap this reflected back long wave radiation and then re-emit it back to the earth keeping the earth's surface warm (and liveable).

- the Greenhouse gases that act like this blanket are water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone

- Human activity has caused changes (increases) in the concentrations of these gases which means more radiation is being reasborbed and re-emitted back to the earth surface and warming the temperature.

What are the key feedback mechanisms that help to explain why our climate is able to “self-regulate"?

This is definitely a question I am not sure I understand so not sure how to provide the "correct" response. 

The key feedback mechanisms seem to refer mostly feedback loops as they relate to warming.    So activities that are ampliflying or increasing the warming process would be called positive feedback mechanisms (for example the Albedo feedback where warming of the oceans means the melting of more sea ice which means less ability of the sea ice to reflect back solar radiation which leads to more warming of the earth's surface and the oceans).  The course also referred to water vapour feedback as a positive feedback where increased warming leads to increased evaporation which leads to more water vapour in the atmosphere that traps reflected radiation and sends it back to the earth's surface. 

However, The NASA Earth System science site also refers to increased evaporation as a negative feedback system where increased evaporation increases cloud cover which can reflect back sunlight before it enters into the atmosphere and therefore preventing it from coming to the earth's surface. 

I believe the self regulation component (and important negative feedback mechanism) described in both the course and the NASA site is radiation feedback were the Stefan Boltmann's law states that as the earth's temperature warms, it will increase its emission of infrared radiation back into space allowing the Earth to experience a slight cooling effect. 

How can our climate be conceptualized as a system containing a series of components that interact with one another?

The earth is a system of interacting parts.  These parts include the atmosphere (the gases encompassing the earth), the hydrosphere (the oceans, rivers and lakes), the cryosphere (glaciers, sea ice and ice fields), the biosphere (plants, animals, insects, soils) and the lithosphere (the earth's crust).  An example of the interaction of the systems is sunlight radiation along with carbon dioxide and water vapour already present in the atmosphere being used by plants in the biosphere to photosynthesize and release oxygen back into the atmosphere.  Because parts are so interconnected, the feedback mechanisms are really complex.

Greenhouse gas -- discussion on methane

I have chosen to talk about methane which is a "Greenhouse gas" that occurs naturally in the atmosphere along with carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide.  As discussed, these greenhouse gases absorbing and radiating heat back to earth acting like a blanket.  Without them the earth would have been too cold for life to exist.  Unfortunately with human activity, we are increasing the concentration of all of these gases so they are radiating more and more heat back to the earth's surface that is leading to a warming of a planet.

According to Global Methane Initiative (globalmethane.org), the human contributions to methane production are:

1. production of coal, oil and natural gas
2. municipal solid waste decomposing in landfills
3. waste water treatment facilities
4. domestic animal waste management systems
5. rice production

The Government of Canada's climate change site indicates that although methane will only last 12 years in the atmosphere after being emitted it can trap 70 times more heat in a 20 year period than carbon dioxide.  According to the Environmental Protection Agency in the US, 50-65% of methane emissions are due to human activities. Therefore methane plays a huge role in the greenhouse gas "blanket effect".

Not only will methane emissions contribute to warming of the planet but warming of the planet and the thawing of permafrost will release further deposits of what was frozen methane or what NASA describes as the rapid release of methane. 

Climate and weather

Canadians love to talk about weather.  "Wow it is cold out". "Geez we have had a lot of snow this year".  "It is way too hot - we need more rain".  So in discussing temperature, precipitation and wind, we are discussing weather and how it is being experienced right now.

I feel our observations are true as we know them to be but if we want to discuss climate - how the average weather patterns are changing in a specific region year to year over a longer term period, then we can't rely on our memories alone especially when the majority of us spend most of our days indoors in our thermostat controlled homes, schools, stores and office building and drive in our air conditioned or heated cars to go to and from places.  This is where we need the data.

Unfortunately, it is often challenging to wrap our heads around the data of climate because it is longer term and much larger scale then our daily routines/daily life allows us to notice especially if we haven't experienced a severe weather experience to really have it impact our lives.

My 3rd attempt at blogging - and a Future Learn course that is inspiring it

Well, here we are in 2020 and my attempt to blog again.  When the pandemic started and I didn't have work for 6 weeks, I started taking these courses offered through Future Learn (futurelearn.com).  The first was called Sustainable Futures, the next was Future Food and now this one is Climate Change: The Science.  The first 2 courses had us answer questions in the discussion board and comment on other participants' responses.  For the Climate Change: The Science course, instructors suggested we  consider blogging.  I have often spoke to friends/family about how I like writing but am never sure what to write about so here is my opportunity to blog about what I am learning in a online course.  Doesn't sound like the most entertaining reading but if my goal is to write then does it really matter how many are reading?

So let's get to it.  Here is what I am learning on day 1:

Greenhouse gases:

As much as I feel like I am a person who cares about the environment and the future of humanity and other life forms, I need to get a better understanding of the science.  In that I can watch the course video on greenhouses gases and go, "okay...yes....I see where this is going".  But ask me to explain it to another person (or a kid) or on this blog and whoosh, I feel a bit of panic because I don't understand "enough".  So this is my warning to anyone reading this - I am going to explain it and re-explain it to practice - practice for when I am talking to people and explaining why this is important and what they can do about it in their own life.  So with this blog being my first attempt,  I may not get it exactly right but this is why I am practicing...

So imagine yourself curled up in a blanket.  Maybe you are inside your home and the blanket is keeping you warm.  Maybe you are outside in the sun and the blanket is making you warmer than you want to be).  This is the concept the instructor of the course wants us to think about rather than a greenhouse when we think about sun entering the earthy's atmosphere.  The sun is radiating light and heat onto the earth's surface.  From what reaches the earth 30% is reflected back and 70% is absorbed by the earth.  However, that heat reflected from the earth's surface just doesn't all go back into space. There are "Greenhouse gases" (the important ones being carbon dioxide, water, methane, nitrous oxide and ozone) that are acting like a "blanket" and re-emiting some of the reflected heat from the earth back to the earth.

So why a blanket instead of a greenhouse?  A greenhouse doesn't have the airflow inside of it.  So if you think about when you are at the gym and really sweating and you go and stand in front of a fan which then evaporates the sweat from your skin and cools you down, a green house doesn't do that.  But the earth does which is why the concept of a blanket (rather than a greenhouse).

And why is it important to understand that greenhouse gases are acting like a blanket rather than a greenhouse?  Stay tuned as I learn more....